Yes! The goal of DVOA is to balance two things:
- The correlation of the opponent-adjusted statistics from year-to-year, representing the intrinsic quality of a team regardless of luck and random chance, and
- The correlation of the non-opponent-adjusted statistics to wins.
DVOA -- at least, the team version -- does these things better than any other statistic available. Here are some correlation coefficients to demonstrate:
Correlation of various stats to wins in same year, 2000-2014 | |||
Stat | Offense | Defense | Total (Off - Def) |
Points scored/allowed | .74 | -.68 | .92 |
VOA (not adjusted for opponent) | .72 | -.55 | .86 |
DVOA | .70 | -.50 | .84 |
Yards gained/allowed | .54 | -.40 | .68 |
Yards gained/allowed per play | .54 | -.35 | .72 |
Correlation of various stats from year to year, 2000-2014 | ||
Stat | Correlation with wins Y+1 | Correlation with same stat Y+1 |
DVOA | .38 | .52 |
VOA (not adjusted for opponent) | .35 | .44 |
Points scored - points allowed | .34 | .39 |
Wins | .30 | .30 |
Yards gained - yards allowed | .29 | .47 |
(For those unfamiliar with statistical terms, correlation coefficients are explained here.)