Weekly NFL Picks are based on more complicated formulas than just DVOA itself. Picks against the spread are based on an equation that measures current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather, injuries, and (from Week 1 to Week 10) the Football Outsiders preseason projections.
Similarly, postseason picks are different from the FO Playoff Odds Report because they are based on a more complicated formula, while the playoff odds report only considers overall DVOA.
Please note that we will try to pick all games to help those who are in pick pools that require picks for all games, but this does not mean we are suggesting wagers on all games. Don't be an idiot.
Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red
- GREEN: Difference of a TD or more.
- YELLOW: Difference between a FG and a TD.
- RED: Difference of less than a FG.
Games are ranked from 1 (most likely to cover/win) to 16 (least likely to cover/win).
Listed lines are the "VI consensus" from VegasInsider.com.
We will not make picks on games where our projected line is within 0.1 points of the Vegas consensus line.